1. United States – Stable to Mild Growth in Sales with Rising Inventory
According to Realtor.com data, active listings rose 15.3% year-over-year in October, marking the 24th consecutive month of inventory growth.
The national median list price was essentially flat (+0.4% YoY) at about US $424,200; price per square foot dipped slightly (-0.5%) with bigger weakness in the South and West regions.
The number of homes on the market increased: the months’ supply of inventory climbed to 2.9 months from 2.6 a year earlier.
Homes are spending longer on the market (average ~63 days, up ~5 days YoY) and buyers continue to struggle to meet sellers’ price expectations.
For October in 51 surveyed metros: sales up 3.2% YoY, new listings up 0.8% YoY, median sales price up 2.2% YoY (to about US $445,000).
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports pending home-sales rose 1.9% month-to-month in October, but were down 0.4% year-to-year. Stronger in Midwest and South; weaker in West.
Implications: The U.S. market is showing signs of moderation rather than collapse: more supply, slower price growth, elongated time on market. Buyers have more choices, while affordability remains a constraint even with some lower mortgage rates. Sellers may face pressure, particularly in weaker regions.
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2. U.S. Luxury Segment Surging
In the U.S., the luxury home sector (higher-end properties) saw a 5.5% year-over-year gain in October with median luxury home price at US $1.28 million. Meanwhile, non‐luxury homes rose only ~1.8% to median ~ US $373,249.
This divergence suggests that wealthy buyers remain active, possibly less sensitive to interest-rate headwinds or affordability issues.
Implications: The luxury segment may decouple (somewhat) from the broader market, driven by different buyer motivations (investment, second homes, lifestyle). For those in higher price tiers this is a positive signal; for average buyers the broader market remains more subdued.
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3. China – New Home Prices Fall at Fastest Pace in Nearly a Year
In China, new home prices dropped in September at the fastest pace in 11 months: 63 of 70 cities recorded monthly declines; secondary home prices also broadly down.
The weakening reflects ongoing challenges in China’s residential property sector and suggests drag on economic growth.
Implications: For buyers/investors interested in China, the pricing trend may offer opportunities, but it also signals elevated risk (economic, policy, regulatory). For global markets, China’s slowdown remains a noteworthy drag.
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4. Italy – Moderate Price Growth Amid Weak Supply and Construction
In Italy, house prices in major cities in October 2025 were modestly up: Milan ~€5,188 per sqm (+3.1% YoY), Venice ~€4,792 (+5.2%), Rome ~€3,237 (+5.8%) per sqm.
But residential construction is weak: in H1 2025 the number of new dwellings authorised fell ~12.3% YoY and floor area of new residential building permits fell ~7%.
Mortgage rates in Italy continue to ease: new housing loans averaged ~3.28% in Sept 2025, slightly down from a year earlier.
Implications: Italy presents a relatively stable price growth scenario, backed by constrained supply but low‐to‐modest demand. For buyers/investors it may look attractive for moderate growth, but the broader economic backdrop is sluggish, which imposes caution.
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5. Global Bubble Risk – Cities to Watch
The UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2025 flags several major cities for elevated risk of overvaluation:
Top “bubble risk” city: Miami
Other cities: Tokyo, Zurich, Los Angeles, Geneva, Amsterdam, Dubai showed increases in risk
Moderate risk: Sydney, Vancouver, Toronto, Madrid, Frankfurt, Munich
Lower risk: London, Paris, Milan
Implications: If you're considering buying in any of these flagged cities, especially in “high risk” zones, you should exercise extra diligence: higher valuations can make future returns more uncertain, and corrections (price adjustments) may hold more downside risk.
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Key take-aways for buyers/sellers/investors (global view)
Buyers: More supply in many markets means more choices and possibly more bargaining power — especially in U.S. mainstream markets. But affordability (rates + prices) remains a constraint.
Sellers: May face longer time on market and may need to be more realistic on pricing. In luxury segments and select markets there is stronger demand.
Investors: Timing and geography matter more than ever. Stable/moderate growth markets (like Italy) might offer consistency; high-risk valuation cities demand caution; markets under stress (like China) may offer opportunities or traps.
Markets diverging by segment: E.g., luxury vs mainstream in the U.S.; different regions globally showing very different trends.
Policy & interest rates remain major influences: Lower rates help demand, but broader economic factors (employment, supply, confidence) are still influencing behavior.
